Okay, let’s be specific. My prediction is probably on the safe side (just my well-known conservative tendencies) but I’ll say Obama takes all of Kerry’s states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia for a total of 338 electoral votes. I’ll put his popular margin at 53%. The link below will take you to the site where I got my polling data.
UPDATE: Just noticed a typo. It should read “popular margin at +3%” not “53%” which would be a +6% margin. That would be nice, but given how big Obama is likely to lose the deep red states, that seems unlikely.
The Local Crank
Indeed! And what of the Senate. I think it’s going to be close, but we won’t get the super-majority. Ah well.
You predicted the same elctoral vote total for Obama as Karl Rove. I’m surprised your keyboard didn’t smolder and emit slight whiff of brimstone as you typed this post.
I think 58 or 59 seats in the Senate (including Sanders and Leiberman) but I admit I haven’t been following them too closely. Yes, I did end up matching Karl Rove, but again, this is a deliberately conservative estimate. I say, watch Virginia and North Carolina; if Obama wins Virginia, he’s won the election. If he wins Virginia AND North Carolina, it will be a landslide and states like Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota and Montana will be in play.
[...] Put Up or Shut Up Okay, let’s be specific. My prediction is probably on the safe side (just my well-known conservative tendencies) but I’ll say Obama takes all of Kerry’s states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia for a total of 338 electoral votes. I’ll put his popular margin at 53%. The link below will take you to the site where I got my polling data. [...]
[...] Put Up or Shut Up Okay, let’s be specific. My prediction is probably on the safe side (just my well-known conservative tendencies) but I’ll say Obama takes all of Kerry’s states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia for a total of 338 electoral votes. I’ll put his popular margin at 53%. The link below will take you to the site where I got my polling data. [...]