(1968)
This is one of those turning points in history that most gets me to wondering. Has he lived, it seems very likely that RFK would have won the Democratic nomination and gone on to defeat Nixon in the fall. As it was, Hubert Humphrey very nearly pulled it off. And beyond that? I think the Vietnam War would’ve ended four years earlier, likely with the same result, giving the Republicans their campaign slogan in 1972: “Who Lost Vietnam?” I could easily see Ronald Reagan as the standard-bearer. The space program would’ve continued, rather than being eviscerated. More importantly, the country would’ve been spared the trauma to the national psyche of Watergate and maybe, just maybe, things would be less cynical and less polarized today. RFK was hardly a saint, of course, but I think the country would’ve been changed for the better merely by the fact of his survival.
The Local Crank
Yeah, it makes you wonder.
When he ran in ‘68, RFK made it quite plain to his team that he regarded himself as a one-term President. His primary aim was to withdraw US forces from SE Asia, and he knew this would hamstring his re-election chances in 1972. I believe this would have made for a brave, driven presidency, determined to achieve as much as possible on his other goals, such as poverty. Very different from the Presidential template since, which has been
Get Elected;
Get Re-elected;
Avoid Impeachment;
Shred, Burn & Wipe Everything In Year Eight.
That is very interesting; I had never heard that before, but it makes sense. Of course, in our counterfactual scenario, that would probably mean that Ronald Reagan gets elected in ‘72…
I think you may be right, Crank. The template was unprecedented, and he knew it was going to be unpopular. Unless in those four years he could have
(a) convinced the US electorate that he was coming in to do a slash-and-burn, one-term job, and that it was necessary;
(b) fostered a credible successor, to whit George McGovern, whom he once described as “the most decent man in the Senate … hell, the only decent man in the Senate”.
A mad, bad, sad decade.
Yrs,
fitzjohn
While we’re speculating, I wonder who RFK would’ve picked as his running mate? Seems like he would have to go with a conservative. Stuart Symington? John Connally?
I’ve thought long and hard about this, Crank, and in view of – in terms of ‘68 – how far out there RFK was, I’m not sure the ticket was ‘balanceable’, short of taking Byrd, or possibly Clyde Tolson on board … no … couldn’t be done. That’s just black, black humour. Or bitter retrospect.
While we’re on your counterfactual river, it depends which branch of that river we’re on. If he’d stepped off the podium at the Ambassador and taken a different route to the pantry, who knows? He might have reached across party lines and found a liberal Republican – John Lindsay? Nah, too East Coast. That old actor in California? Don’t laugh … –
However, if he’d survived an assassination attempt … whether untouched, or with a flesh wound … Jeez, it’s tempting to suggest he could have named Abby Hoffman as his running mate and won.
OK, I’m being silly now. Symington’s a good suggestion. I think RFK would have known too much about the larceny in Connelly’s heart to overlook it. But if … IF … (the biggest two-letter word in the language …) he’d survived an attempt on his life, I think five months later (and less than five years after the murder of his brother) he could have got away with:
(a)Stuart Symington
(b)George McGovern
(c)Birch Bayh
(d) at a pinch … Edward M Kennedy.
Of course, Eddie was a non-starter. Too young, too close. Too much to do later on.
I know, it’s lunatic to suggest this, but in 1978, a Brit journalist reviewed a 10-years-on documentary by explaining Nixon’s election in these terms: (I’m quoting verbatim from memory) “the American electorate, for the second time in less than six years, had seen their favourite die in a hail of gunfire. Come November 1968, they went to the ballot box, and thought ‘whoever we want will die; so who wants to be President MOST?’ Enter Nixon.”
On January 20 this year I was flung into some kind of mid-life funk by the knowledge that for the first time in my life, the President of the United States was younger than me. I took comfort from the fact that for the first time in eight years, the President of the United States is smarter than me.
Interesting point about Obama. I was surprised that the reign of the Baby Boomers only lasted 2 presidents. The GI generation dominated the White House from 1961 until 1993; I figured the Boomers would go at least that long. Instead, we skipped ahead to my generation.
Sorry, Crank, where are you from, chronologically speaking? We Boomers are an odd generation – I’m from the very end of it – the Da told me of sitting over my cot in October 62, not knowing whether to spend his last night with his baby boy or his young wife. When he told he that, I realised who the second bravest generation were.
I was born October 24, 1967 at Webb Air Force Base in Big Spring, Texas