Nate Silver, the man who introduced math to political polling, is giving the Republicans a slight edge to control the Senate in 2015. I can see one of two results if that happens: one, we get two more years like the last four of gridlock and political impotence; two, the Loony Wing is ascendant and we see impeachment hearings. In either event, I suspect the party will be short-lived and will end with Hillary Clinton pounding Ted Cruz or Rand Paul in 2016.
The Future Is Past
Okay, so about a week out I’ll go ahead and make my long-awaited prediction: Obama will carry every state he carried in 2008, less Indiana and possibly North Carolina and/or Florida. Might also be a surprise and take Arizona. I’ll also predict the Democrats will hold the Senate, and might even add 1 or 2, with the Republicans keeping the House, though I think their margin will be cut considerably.
Having said that, my prediction means (at least) another two years of complete gridlock. If Obama really believes that his re-election will break the “fever blister” of Republican hysteria and obstinacy, he’s even more naive and narcissistic than I thought. There are no moderate Republicans; there aren’t even really any sane Republicans left in Congress. Even if there were, the Tea Party has sufficiently proven its ability to punish those who displease them that they will not take the risk of being seen to “cooperate” with the Muslim Nazi Kenya Usurper in the White House. A GOP House will continue to refuse even a vote for any of Obama’s second term proposals; GOP Senators will continue to insist that 60 votes are required to conduct any business. Assuming Romney loses, the Right Wing Howler Monkey Media Chorus will rail that he wasn’t conservative enough and insist on running a complete lunatic in 2016 (potentially good news for Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton). I wish I was wrong on this, but I don’t think I am.
It’s The End of the World As We Know It
The US Supreme Court is poised to formally cede control of the American democratic process to large, unaccountable corporations and special interest group. The ruling could potentially allow these groups to dump millions of dollars into elections, while denying voters the right to even know where the money came from. This is the natural result of the disastrous Buckley v. Valeo decision: if money = “free speech,” then those who have more money have more rights, creating a two-class system. Or, to put it another way, it’s the Golden Rule: them that has the gold makes the rules.
Fire this Moron
What a complete and utter idiot! Someone this moronic has no business even being allowed on the White House tour, let alone working as a presidential speechwriter. So, Jon Favreau, from a Hillary Clinton delegate, thanks SO much for your frat-boy drunken escapades that have spit in the face of ALL of us who defended Barack Obama against charges of institutional sexism. You tool!
PUMA Overload
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the “Angry Hillary Supporter” meme is being overhyped and driven primarily by the MSM and the McCain Campaign, as clearly demonstrated by Our Man in Denver, Hilzoy.
UPDATE: Damn good speech, damn good. Of course, the punditocracy is already on about how she didn’t go far enough, with one idiot I watched on PBS even saying she should have explicitly taken back everything negative she ever said about Obama. Please. You couldn’t ask for a more unequivocal endorsement. If it’s not good enough for the MSM, screw ’em. Nothing that might be positive for Democrats will ever be good enough for the corporate MSM. And if it wasn’t good enough for the PUMAs, then they were never really Hillary supporters and they aren’t really Democrats and to hell with them, too.
Should He or Shouldn’t He?
The case for and the case against an Obama/Clinton ticket. I continue to believe that Hillary will not be on the ticket for the simple reason that there is no compelling reason why she would want to be. Far better to serve as Majority Leader while waiting for John Paul Stevens to retire. And if Hillary isn’t on the ticket, I don’t think Obama will pick another woman. The only unanswered question is whether or not significant numbers of Hillary primary voters will stay home or (far less likely in my opinion) defect to McBush without her on the ticket. Almost certainly, Obama’s people are furiously polling that very question as we speak, particularly in places like Florida and Ohio (which, signficantly, Obama’s people now say he doesn’t need to get to 270. You can play with a cool map here to see if you agree). If Hillary does end up on the ticket, you’ll know the results of those polls.
Supreme Court Accidentally Upholds Constitution
Apparently, there really is such a thing as habeas corpus after all. The talking heads seem happy, but I am left to ponder: is it really something to cheer about that the highest court in the land, by a 5-4 vote no less, has only grudgingly upheld what has been the fundamental basis of the rule of law since the Magna Carta? Is the bar really set that low now?
And to any Hillary Clinton supporters out there still contemplating either sitting this one out or supporting McBush, a point to consider: FIVE to FOUR.
My Big Fat Democratic Convention
For reasons unclear to me, I was unanimously elected chair of the Senate District 22 caucus, divided almost exactly evenly between Clinton and Obama delegates. The two camps tried to cobble together a deal to divide the available committee positions between them, but it nearly foundered as many of the first-time delegates (probably a majority of the total) were understandably suspicious of “back room deals.” In spite of that, and a brief bit of childish public tantrum-throwing by a delegate who didn’t get what he thought he deserved, we actually finished far ahead of the other senate districts, some of which were at it all night long and well into the morning. I attended a hastily-organized Native American caucus and we elected a Navajo man and a Blackfoot/Lakota woman (I’m sorry, but I’ve blanked on their names) as our choices for at-large Native American delegate to the national convention. We also passed a resolution I authored calling for the repeal of the Major Crimes Act and reversal of Oliphant, though I never learned what happened to it after that. There was little actual drama on the convention floor compared to prior years; Boyd Ritchie was easily re-elected. The question of abolishing the “Texas Two-Step” Primary was fobbed off on a task force. The biggest excitement came when we had to evacuate the Austin Convention Center (which is easily the worst venue I have ever been trapped in; we practically had to rappel up the side of the building to get to some of the meeting rooms and the escalators were unaccountably turned off) due to a fire alarm. I heard but didn’t get to see Chelsea Clinton’s speech, and the entire convention was annoyed by the technical glitches that kept interrupting Hillary Clinton’s concession speech. As for the much-hyped tension between Clinton & Obama supporters, I think there were actually more people worried about it than there were people who legitimately intend to vote for McCain unless Clinton is put on the ticket. Overall, my impression was that the Obama supporters could have been more gracious winners and the Clinton supporters could have been better losers. A few small symbolic gestures by either side would’ve gone a long way. For example, if I was in charge of the Obama delegates, I would have arranged for a “spontaneous” pro-Hillary demonstration after her speech. It would have cost the Obama side nothing, but would’ve helped mend fences. Actually, Texas would’ve been the perfect setting for a joint appearance, considering the huge turnout and the fact that Clinton won the primary while Obama won the caucus. Hopefully, the Texas Democratic Party will capitalize on the huge primary turnout and work to make sure that all the new people in the process stay excited and involved all the way to November and beyond.
"Military Dictatorship" Is Such An Ugly Phrase…
…I prefer “Unitary Executive.” Bush Administration lawyerbots claim the President has the unfettered authority to send in the military to arrest US Citizens on US soil and lock them up forever without charges, much less a trial. And of course, none of this reviewable by any court. Now, here’s the challenge: I challenge Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to publicly declare that they denounce this position and will never assert it in court. Get cracking, you two!
What’s the Matter with Texas?
Dubya’s popularity is a scant 39%, though that still makes him more popular than Landslide Perry who is now hovering at 34%. And Cornyn holds only a four point lead on Rick Noriega. And both Obama and Clinton are polling at 43%, to McCain’s 48% (against Obama) and 49% (against Clinton). Given that Rasmussen has always had a tendency to skew Republican, this is potentially very explosive stuff. Texas hasn’t really been in play in a Presidential election since 1976, though the potential was there in 1996 had Bill Clinton not blown the state off. If even Texas is looking a little purple, then McCain is in serious, serious trouble.
UPDATE: A Research 2000 poll seems to confirm the Rasmussen results. So what gives? Neither Cornyn nor Kay Bailey Hutchinson have gotten just huge amounts of coverage lately, yet her approval ratings leave his in the dust, so it’s hard to write this off as the Dubya anchor dragging down all GOP boats. Could it be that after a decade-long deathgrip on statewide office and the Legislature, the Republican brand name has fallen so far that it’s Hutchinson who’s the exception and Perry and Dubya the rule?
The Local Crank 